Current Landscape: Shop Visit Slots Becoming Increasingly Scarce

The scarcity of shop visit slots has become a widely recognized issue in the industry. IBA forecasts around 2,500 shop visits in 2024 (excluding the additional GTF shop visits) for select popular narrowbody engines, an 11% increase from last year. This surge is driven by ongoing supply chain disruptions, shortages in spare parts, labor constraints, and production challenges faced by OEMs, all of which have also caused longer waits for slots and increased lease rates for narrowbody and widebody aircraft to skyrocket.

Material and Supply Chain Challenges Continue to Dominate

Supply chain disruptions have severely impacted the availability of spare parts, affecting both OEM-produced components and USM (Used Serviceable Material). OEMs, grappling with shortages of raw materials, must also contend with labor shortages and difficulties in ramping up production, especially in the post-pandemic era. The shortage of engines and aircraft in the market has also slowed the retirement of older aircraft, limiting the availability of USM. Vendors are increasingly shifting toward cash-in-advance payment models, replacing previous credit-based systems. This shift limits the flexibility of operators and lessors in managing repair funding and material procurement. This creates a perfect storm, driving up lead times and repair costs, and consequently increasing overall turnaround time (TAT) and expenses.

What You Should Consider for Your Next Shop Visit

• Thorough Planning for Accurate Estimates & Avoid Unexpected Costs

  This includes defining the work scope per the Work Package Guide (WPG), with consideration to engine historical trends, addressing necessary ADs and SBs, and identifying material requirements. A well-thought-out engine shop contract selection and a  firm agreement on cycle build or EGT margin, while accounting for deterioration rates across MROs, aids in projecting costs and engine replacement needs. Additionally, staggering engine maintenance around shop visits is critical for maintaining fleet availability, especially with rising engine lease rates.

  
  

• BtB Records Traceability

  Maintaining (and auditing/building up) accurate BtB data in your operation for LLPs helps avoid unexpected repairs and findings to unnecessary replacements for LLPs with more than enough cycles remaining.

  
  

• Maintenance Reserve Consideration

  Strategically manage scopes around MR terms, balancing costs for each MR category (ex: repairs and refurbishment) with the target cycle or EGT margin for the shop visit.

  
  

• Tracking & Coordination

  Even with highly technical processes, coordination remains vital. Having a dedicated personnel —or partners like TBM Aviation—to monitor MRO progress, track repair costs, and manage spare parts sourcing can help you meet TAT goals and control expenses.

  
  

What You Should Highly Consider After the Shop Visits

• Strict Quality Checks

  Yes, we’re aware the MRO has its internal quality team, though It's crucial to review shop visit outcomes, including records and certifications, anyway to verify alignment with the work scope and expectations, Maintenance Reserve claims, and prepare for future visits.

• Optimize procedures to maintain record accuracy

  Accurate records, including LLP certificates and component history, are essential for preserving engine market value. Even a well-performing engine loses value if its documentation is incomplete or inaccurate.

Is 2025 going to be better? Maybe.

Following the trend of increasing shop visits in 2024, IBA predicts a 40% rise, reaching 3,500 visits by 2025, plateauing around 3,800 in 2027, and climbing to 4,000 in 2028. Not to mention, the reliability of some engines remains unpredictable, with notable cases like Pratt & Whitney’s powder metal-related groundings and inspections, or the Trent 700’s fan blade being relegated to LLP status after failures at a certain cycle count, serving as concrete proof. This unpredictability continues to affect shop visit availability and is likely to persist, especially as issues surrounding the phenomenon develop, such as GE cutting its LEAP production estimates, labor strikes at Boeing, and rallies at Textron Aviation. happening as per the writing of this article.

On a more positive note—though with mixed implications—the commercial passenger market has shown strong growth, especially in Asia Pacific 2024, with IATA predicting that the region will contribute to more than half of the global net gain in passenger numbers by 2043. IATA estimates from Q2 2024 also put the region’s airlines at a 14.8% YoY increase in RPK, and with demand expected to remain high, it may at least offer airlines some relief amidst rising costs.

Reliable Support for Your Shop Visits and Beyond

This process involves several specialized areas, including technical records, maintenance reserve (MR) calculations, workscoping, and project management. That’s why many lessors and asset management firms entrust dedicated technical partners like TBM Aviation to oversee their shop visits—ensuring the asset receives the attention it needs while staying within budget and timeline.

For customizable support for your fleet, consult our team at info@tbmaviation.com

Reference:

Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook Q2 2024 – IATA Sustainability and Economics

Global Outlook for Air Transport (June 2024) – IATA

Engine Shop Visit Demand – IBA

‘As long as it takes’: on the frontline of the Boeing strike, workers brace for a long battle – The Guardian

Textron Aviation, Machinists ‘Far Apart’ In Labor Talks As Vote Nears – Aviation Week