Industry Context

Aging aircraft are staying in service longer than expected. As of 2024, the global fleet age has climbed to a record 14.8 years, with retirement rates are projected to be 24% lower between 2024 and 2026 than in the 2010–2019 period driven by delivery delays of new aircraft and issues with new-generation engines.

New-generation engines like the GTF and LEAP have shown some reliability concerns as is normal at this stage, which leads to more reliance on legacy fleets. Approximately 30% of the GTF-powered fleet is still grounded, and operators such as Wizz Air and Volaris anticipate continued disruptions until 2027.

For startup or private airlines—particularly in developing markets like Indonesia—older aircraft, which offer lower monthly costs despite higher maintenance reserves. Given that aircraft lease expenses typically form a significant portion of total operating costs, lower lease rates on aging aircraft provide a manageable entry point while the airline builds its network and cash flow. For larger carriers, the motivation shifts to asset efficiency. Aircraft acquired through lease-purchase arrangements are often retained post-depreciation, since the capital cost component effectively drops to zero. In LCC models, this makes economic sense—so long as the aircraft remains airworthy and reliable.

Challenge

• Maintenance cost

Aging aircraft require longer and more complex maintenance events. Deferred retirements push more airframes into high-cycle territory, increasing the frequency of inspections, NDTs, and structural inspections. Programs CPCP (Corrosion Prevention and Control Program) become central to sustaining airworthiness. 

• Supply

Component support becomes unpredictable as OEMs discontinue legacy parts and less retirements means less USM as well. When airline induct individual aircraft in particular (as opposed to sister aircrafts), commonality is low and spares are often aircraft-specific, sometimes down to the MSN level. The cost of spares is rising, but proper planning can offset cashflow impact.

• Labor

Older aircraft demand more labor per event, yet technicians trained on newer platforms may lack experience with legacy systems. While common types like the 737NG and A320ceo still have broad MRO coverage, older models (737CL, A319, 757, aging A330s) are increasingly underserved. Combined with a broader industry shortage in skilled labor, this results in extended TATs and rising labor costs.

How to make aged aircraft work

• In choosing

As with any aircraft acquisition, selection begins with aligning aircraft capabilities to your target market and the technical specs such as range, payload, cabin configuration, runway compatibility, fuel burn, etc. For aging aircraft, DOM (Date of Manufacture) becomes a key variable tied to both acquisition cost and maintenance exposure. Older aircraft require deeper scrutiny, between being used in a longer stretch of time possible between multiple operators, and considering robbing as well, airworthiness directives (ADs) compliance, and any repair/modification history, with the respective DFPs must be fully checked and pending inspections is essential to avoid unexpected ground time or compliance failures.

• Material & Maintenance Planning are Key

Reliability and material planning are critical. Preventative maintenance helps mitigate corrosion and component fatigue, particularly for high-cycle assets or those used in humid or cargo-heavy environments. In a constrained USM market, lack of planning can lead to delays and unplanned costs, turning a budget-friendly aircraft into a recurring liability due to frequent grounding.

Looking Ahead: Market Correction and New Headwinds

• Current bottlenecks and (Expected) Plateauing Retirement Rates

Some supply-side conditions are improving. Boeing delivered 280 aircraft by Q2 2025, up from 175 in the same period last year and exceeding pre-COVID levels, which stood at 239 in 2019. Airbus, on the other hand, has set an ambitious 820-aircraft target for the year but remains off track, with only 306 units delivered so far. On the engine side, Pratt & Whitney has begun introducing durability improvements for the GTF, although recovery is gradual.  

Retirement rates are expected to stabilize alongside improving delivery output. According to McKinsey & Company, global aircraft retirements are projected to return to around 2.7 percent of the fleet annually by 2028, reflecting a more balanced cycle between prolonged aircraft use and next-generation replacements.

• Headwinds Ahead: US Tariffs

One emerging risk is tariff exposure. The U.S. has announced new import tariffs, a reversal from previous exemptions enjoyed by the aviation sector. For a global industry reliant on cross-border manufacturing and support networks, this raises new questions on who absorbs the added cost—OEMs, suppliers, or operators—and how it will impact future fleet and maintenance economics.